Sunday, July 18, 2004

Multipolar World will Soon Emerge

By Mohammad Basirul Haq Sinha

About five years ago, I saw on a TV show an Arab minister complaining that Arabs completely failed to anticipate the demise of the Soviet Union and the emergence of a "unipolar" world.

He added that the situation then emerging left them exposed and unprepared not to do anything other than whatever the US dictated.

He was responded by telling that actually it was just a short period of transition and that the US was not as strong militarily and economically as many imagined it to be.
It was also added that a multipolar world would soon emerge in the form of an assertive Europe, India, China, and Russia that would make it impossible for the US to dictate to the rest of the world. Why is the world becoming multipolar? The US is literally mired in Iraq, a pyhrric victory that rivals that of King Pyhrrus.

The US has demonstrated to the world that it is incapable of fighting two and a half wars simultaneously (or one right after the other),a capability with which it frightened the entire world and a need it used to justify trillions of dollars in defense expenditures in the past decades.

The unquestioned assumption that the US had the capability to fight two and a half wars, has kept many regional powers down and prevented them from asserting themselves in a manner that would invite the wrath of the US. Iraq has exposed the US to be a quite venomous cobra that can kill a horse, but not eat it. The US does not have the money to pay for the soldiers it needs, and spend even more on defense than it already has spent. The public and political will to reinstate a draft and increase taxes sufficient to obtain the revenues needed to build an armed force that can fight on two major and one minor battlefronts are all absent.

One would find it hard to imagine a politician successfully running today on a platform to build a 300 ship navy and add 6 more divisions to the Army. However, at least that much is needed to project power in the manner that the neo-cons desire. The neo-cons are finished or as good as finished because they have been defanged, until they can convince the US public to spend on defense twice as much as is currently spent.

The US has already taken steps that indicate clearly that it recognizes the emergence of a multipolar world.

Before the war, when the reality of US weakness had not yet emerged, India was becoming the Israel of southeast Asia at the expense of Pakistan. Pakistan is now of interest to the US and not because of the so called 'war on terror.' The selling out of India for the sake of Pakistan is an acknowledgement that the US needs a supposedly 'vulnerable' country (think the Zionist entity in Middle East) that can be groomed into a regional power that serves the US interest in containing India and China. Similarly, Turkey has acknowledged this development by aligning itself with France and Germany, distancing itself from so called Israel and upgrading relations with the Palestinians.

Mohammad Basirul Haq Sinha is based on Dhaka,Bangladesh.
He can be reached at


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