Tuesday, October 04, 2005

Intelligence Brief: Nepal

Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein

Nepal, landlocked and bordered by the rising Asian powers of India and China, has become the object of competition among its neighbors as the country has descended into severe instability. The only Hindu kingdom in the world, with a generally impoverished population of 27.7 million people and few strategic resources, Nepal interests New Delhi and Beijing as a geostrategic prize in the new "great game" for spheres of influence in Central Asia. [See: The 'Great Game' Heats Up in Central Asia]

Except for a brief period of parliamentary government after World War II, Nepal was an absolute monarchy until 1989, when King Birendra, bowing to pressure from a coalition of political parties and social movements, instituted a constitutional monarchy. The new parliamentary system was riven by fractious partisanship, failure of leadership, corruption and the persistence of poverty. In 1996, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) (C.P.N.(M.)) abandoned parliamentarism and initiated an armed "people's war" in the countryside aimed at overthrowing the constitutional monarchy and establishing a "socialist republic."

The Maoist insurgency gained support among the 80 percent of Nepalese living in rural areas and now is estimated to control up to 70 percent of the countryside. The campaign to suppress the insurgency by the Royal Nepalese Army (R.N.A.) has been marked by brutality and torture on both sides, most recently documented by U.N. Special Rapporteur on Torture Manfred Nowak in a September 16, 2005 press conference following his investigative trip to Nepal.

A further plunge into instability came in February 2005, when King Gyanendra, who had assumed the throne after the heir apparent had killed his parents and himself, dissolved parliament and declared a state of emergency, suspending civil liberties, imposing press censorship and banning opposition demonstrations, in the name of fighting the insurgency more effectively and suppressing corruption. [See: "Sacking the Government Brings International Attention to Nepal"]

Gyanendra's seizure of absolute power has not calmed Nepal's political turmoil and has led to international censure, including the withdrawal of military aid to Kathmandu by New Delhi and Washington. On April 30, Gyanendra lifted the state of emergency, but did not surrender control and has not moved to re-establish the parliamentary system. Since then, Nepal has been in a state of political flux, in which the three parties to the domestic conflict -- the king, the Maoists and the parliamentary parties -- have maneuvered for advantage in an intensely uncertain situation.

Nepalese Instability: Tri-partite Conflict

The crisis precipitated by Gyanendra's February seizure of absolute power threw the parliamentary parties into the position of either attempting to mount resistance in order to recoup their losses or accepting defeat. Particularly after the king revoked the state of emergency in April, they chose the former, pursuing a three-pronged campaign to delegitimize his rule and render him unable to govern. Forming the same kind of coalition that had forced the institution of a parliamentary system in 1989, they subsumed their rivalries under a common program of restoring democracy.

As Gyanendra remained unyielding, the parliamentary parties radicalized their positions. The crisis ratcheted up to a higher level, when, in late August, the Nepali Congress Party (N.C.P.) -- the largest parliamentary grouping, which has close ties to New Delhi -- announced that it had decided to delete the goal of achieving a constitutional monarchy from its constitution. The Communist Party of Nepal (U.M.L.), the second biggest grouping, had already abandoned constitutional monarchy for a "democratic republic."

In response to the parliamentary parties' break with the monarchy, the Maoist insurgency announced a three-month cease fire and has begun releasing some of its R.N.A. prisoners, although Nepalese media report that it continues to carry out abductions of school teachers and students for "re-education." Registering a shift in the balance of power, the seven-party parliamentary coalition announced on September 16 that it would form a team to negotiate independently with the Maoists. The coalition made it clear that talks were premised on the insurgency ending violence against civilians and that the Maoists would not be permitted to join the coalition unless they laid down their arms.

Along with abandoning their commitment to monarchy and moving towards the Maoists, the parliamentary parties, with the support of student and other civil-society groups, initiated an ongoing series of street demonstrations in Kathmandu, aimed at forcing Gyanendra to restore democracy, that have attracted up to 7,000 participants and have met with mass arrests -- including temporary detention of top party leaders -- and often violent suppression by government security forces.

Faced with international isolation, the collaboration of the Maoists and the parliamentary parties and the emergence of "people power," Gyanendra has held fast to his refusal to institute a cease fire to match the Maoist's initiative and has urged the parliamentary parties to negotiate with him.

Each actor in the tri-partite conflict is playing a risky game with uncertain results.

The Maoists, who have used previous cease fires to rearm and regroup, are growing increasingly confident that their people's war strategy of surrounding Nepal's cities and precipitating urban insurrection is succeeding. Their commitment to a future parliamentary regime is at best suspect.

The parliamentary parties hope to emerge as victors by playing both sides against the middle, counting on the support of New Delhi and its Western allies, and on people power.

Gyanendra is counting on the continued backing of the R.N.A., military aid from Beijing to make up for New Delhi's suspension and residual popular commitment to the monarchy.

At present, it is impossible to predict who will emerge on top or whether there will eventually be a compromise between two or among all of the parties.

The Bottom Line

New Delhi, which counts Nepal within its sphere of influence -- due to its preponderant economic power in the country, cultural affinities and strategic advantages -- has been most severely impacted by the crisis. Indian analysts report on a power struggle in New Delhi between the Ministry of External Affairs, which backs the parliamentary parties and their efforts to negotiate with the Maoists, and the Home and Defense Ministries, which place their bets on Gyanendra, fearing a Maoist takeover and a spread of Maoist insurgencies into India, exacerbated by border insecurity. Thus far, New Delhi has chosen to back the parliamentary parties, but there is no assurance that the strategy will succeed or that it can be pursued effectively given intra-governmental conflicts.

As New Delhi faces hard choices, Beijing has seized the opportunity to move in and offer Kathmandu arms deals, one of which has already been signed. Islamabad is rumored to be doing the same. Washington and London have been left with no option but to back New Delhi as they try to pressure Gyanendra to restore constitutional monarchy and accept international mediation to end the Maoist insurgency.

The latest moves in the new great game highlight the uncertainties and shifting opportunity structures that emerge when strategically valuable, weak states begin to implode. Beijing has nothing to lose by backing Gyanendra and will win big if he holds on to power. New Delhi, which allowed the situation to get out of control, faces the possible diminution of its influence. As the crisis has deepened, New Delhi has sent troops to Indian states bordering Nepal to contain an escalated conflict.

Uncertainty is the watchword in Nepal, where much depends on how the parliamentary coalition plays its hand as it seeks to finesse the Maoists and the king.
*****
URL:www.pinr.com

34 Comments:

Blogger Kazzrie said...

Calling ALL Affiliates!!
Now here is the deal of the month. Hurry ....only 24 places left for the Affiliate Bootbamp at FX Networking

3:56 PM  
Blogger bizopps1 said...

Hello!
Very interesting blog.
I will make sure to come back often to this blog.
If You really are interested in investing dollar offshore I can strongly
recommend investing dollar offshore
Here You can find an almost comlete directory of this subject.

7:27 PM  
Blogger brian said...

liquid supplement is a great resource for this type of thing liquid supplement

10:35 PM  
Blogger Johnjon said...

Yo, This blog is pretty neat. You should check out mine sometime. It pretty much covers residual income program related stuff.

5:50 AM  
Blogger Wealthy from the internet said...

Hi Inter Press Network,

Did you know that Toni is the beste journalist and that de beste journalist Dutch is?

de beste journalist means that he is the beste journalist

click to see de beste journalist van nederland

This great post was brought to you by Blog submitter

3:09 PM  
Blogger Gordon said...

hello, your blog is interesting to read, I have a currency trading website, it is informative and provides many currency charts and real time currency quote. It should be helpful to your trading.

3:35 PM  
Blogger Johnny Canuck said...

I definitely don't have all the answers, but I know that as long as people keep sharing ideas like this, the truth will eventually reveal itself and maybe it can make a difference somewhere.

I think this blog rocks! Keep up the good work, I've bookmarked it and will definitely swing by again soon.

Feel free to pay a visit to my citizenship and immigration in canada site. It might not be your "cup of tea", but it covers citizenship and immigration in canada related topics.

10:08 PM  
Blogger Johnny Canuck said...

I definitely don't have all the answers Inter Press Network, but I know that as long as people keep sharing ideas like this, the truth will eventually reveal itself and hopefully make the world a better place to live in. I've been looking for canada immigration work visa info and news - yeah I know I should probably get a life, but there's just something about canada immigration work visa that gets me thinking of better times.

Your post about Intelligence Brief: Nepal was a good read compared to a lot of the other stuff that's out there! Keep up the good work, I will definitely swing by again soon.

5:40 PM  
Blogger Johnny Canuck said...

I definitely don't have all the answers Inter Press Network, but I know that as long as people keep sharing ideas like this, the truth will eventually reveal itself and hopefully make the world a better place to live in. I've been looking for investor immigration to canada info and news - yeah I know I should probably get a life, but there's just something about investor immigration to canada that gets me thinking of better times.

Your post about Intelligence Brief: Nepal was a good read compared to a lot of the other stuff that's out there! Keep up the good work, I will definitely swing by again soon.

3:59 PM  
Blogger Jayandbubble said...

Hey, you have a great blog here! I'm definitely going to bookmark you!
I have a residual income site/blog. It pretty much covers related stuff.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)

8:25 PM  
Blogger Nick Roberts said...

I definitely don't have all the answers Inter Press Network, but I know that as long as people keep sharing ideas like this, the truth will eventually make a difference somewhere and hopefully make the world a better place to live in. I've been looking for new immigration rule for canada info and news - yeah I know I should probably get a life, but there's just something about new immigration rule for canada that gets me thinking of better times.

Your post about Intelligence Brief: Nepal was a good read compared to a lot of the other stuff that's out there! Keep up the good work, I will definitely swing by again soon.

11:26 AM  
Blogger Dokdo Island said...

hello
offers or buyers

These days trade business much easier since internet development.
On net, we can find well made trade portal site.
In fact, those cool sites help your trade business.
How many countries? what kinds of products?
Yes, we can not count.
Around the world, someone looking for your products, and a company
want to import your goods.
Trade portal site become huge marketplace so it called "emarketplace."
How many emarketplace do you know.
Which emarketplace do you recommend.
I am proudly tell you the emarketplace "Buykorea.org"
You may not buy korea, but you can buy and sell what you want.
Buykorea.org trade service managed by kotra(un profit trade agency)
Your marketing budget will be save and business increased.
Check what do you want to know about
trade lead.

12:32 AM  
Blogger Nick Roberts said...

I definitely don't have all the answers, but I know that as long as people keep sharing ideas like this, the truth will eventually reveal itself and maybe it can make a difference somewhere.

I think this blog rocks! Keep up the good work, I've bookmarked it and will definitely swing by again soon.

Feel free to pay a visit to my new immigration rule for canada site. It might not be your "cup of tea", but it covers new immigration rule for canada related topics.

6:33 AM  
Blogger Nick Roberts said...

Great blog! You've got a real knack for writing Inter Press Network, keep on rockin! I will definitely be checking in here again soon.

Your post about Intelligence Brief: Nepal sure got my attention - I'll spread the word about it to my friends. Sure you won't mind a few more eyeballs on your work from the four corners of the earth? :-) Thanks for a great read!

7:35 AM  
Blogger Johnny Canuck said...

I definitely don't have all the answers, but I know that as long as people keep sharing ideas like this, the truth will eventually reveal itself and maybe it can make a difference somewhere.

I think this blog rocks! Keep up the good work, I've bookmarked it and will definitely swing by again soon.

Feel free to pay a visit to my new immigration rule for canada site. It might not be your "cup of tea", but it covers new immigration rule for canada related topics.

6:45 AM  
Blogger Johnny Canuck said...

I definitely don't have all the answers Inter Press Network, but I know that as long as people keep sharing ideas like this, the truth will eventually reveal itself and hopefully make the world a better place to live in. I've been looking for citizenship and immigration in canada info and news - yeah I know I should probably get a life, but there's just something about citizenship and immigration in canada that gets me thinking of better times.

Your post about Intelligence Brief: Nepal was a good read compared to a lot of the other stuff that's out there! Keep up the good work, I will definitely swing by again soon.

5:51 AM  
Blogger GOOGPLEXMAN said...

Super blog. I enjoy visiting. Have you seen the great Discover Card Reward
information available at Discover Card Reward
. Your should check it out.

11:50 AM  
Blogger Johnny Canuck said...

I definitely don't have all the answers Inter Press Network, but I know that as long as people keep sharing ideas like this, the truth will eventually reveal itself and hopefully make the world a better place to live in. I've been looking for new immigration rule for canada info and news - yeah I know I should probably get a life, but there's just something about new immigration rule for canada that gets me thinking of better times.

Your post about Intelligence Brief: Nepal was a good read compared to a lot of the other stuff that's out there! Keep up the good work, I will definitely swing by again soon.

10:51 PM  
Blogger The Immigrant said...

Great blog! You've got a real knack for writing Inter Press Network, keep on rockin! I will definitely be checking in here again soon.

Your post about Intelligence Brief: Nepal sure got my attention - I'll spread the word about it to my friends. Sure you won't mind a few more eyeballs on your work from the four corners of the earth? :-) Thanks for a great read!

1:58 AM  
Blogger Nick Roberts said...

Hi Inter Press Network, I'm looking for someone who could give me more info on investor immigration to canada and I came accross your post about Intelligence Brief: Nepal. Although it wasn't exactly what I was looking for, it definitely gave me a new perspective. Right now anything that looks like investor immigration to canada would be of interest to me since I'm thinking of starting a new life in Canada and want to be as informed as possible about my options.

If you know of any other blogs or websites that I could check out to get some more info on investor immigration to canada, I'd be very grateful. I really enjoyed your blog - thanks for the great read.

10:08 AM  
Blogger The Immigrant said...

Great blog! You've got a real knack for writing Inter Press Network, keep on rockin! I will definitely be checking in here again soon.

Your post about Intelligence Brief: Nepal sure got my attention - I'll spread the word about it to my friends. Sure you won't mind a few more eyeballs on your work from the four corners of the earth? :-) Thanks for a great read!

9:54 AM  
Blogger Nick Roberts said...

Now you've got me thinking Inter Press Network. I really enjoyed your post about "Intelligence Brief: Nepal , I found your blog while searching for canadian immigration news. I'll definitely pop around more often, keep us posted if you happen to dig up any more canadian immigration stuff.

9:22 PM  
Blogger Johnny said...

Hello, your blog is inmformative, I just found a brand new forex trading system using both Mathematical and psychlogical approch, hope you can visit and it will be useful to your trading life.

4:03 AM  
Blogger paymaster said...

Hello Inter Press Network,

After reading your blog "Intelligence Brief: Nepal", I believe you will find the wages information on my site about Jobs With Best Wages to be very helpful.

To give you an idea of our wide range, some of the recent searches that found our site included ...

Postsecondary Religion Teachers Wages
Postsecondary Physics Teachers Wages
Postsecondary Political Socience Teachers Wages
Postsecondary Teachers Wages
Preschool Teachers Wages
Postsecondary Psychology Teachers Wages
Postsecondary Recreation & Fitness Studies Teachers Wages
Secondary School Teachers Wages.

We have hundreds of "must read" articles on wages and careers and many other topics in our Top Career Wages site.

Kind Regards
Emily

12:11 PM  
Blogger Silver Fox said...

I found a company that pays $10 - $50/hr for shopping the classifieds!

Work At Home $10 - $50/hr Easy part/full time work, no boss, no commute, no set hours, paid every 12 days..

I'm making over $500 a day with this company and will be happy to help you do the same.

Hurry postions are filling fast!

5:49 AM  
Blogger johnharolds21687390 said...

I read over your blog, and i found it inquisitive, you may find My Blog interesting. My blog is just about my day to day life, as a park ranger. So please Click Here To Read My Blog

http://www.juicyfruiter.blogspot.com

2:49 AM  
Blogger davidwarner6948482421 said...

I read over your blog, and i found it inquisitive, you may find My Blog interesting. So please Click Here To Read My Blog

http://pennystockinvestment.blogspot.com

10:56 AM  
Blogger Tito Maury said...

Check it out when you have time as i'm sure you could find
all kinds of info to suit your needs some time.

5:50 PM  
Blogger Tito Maury said...

Just thought I would stop by and say "Hello Inter Press Network." It's been a hectic
but very worthwhile last few days for me. In searching for more trademark properties related info on the Internet, I came across your site. I appreciate your content and I really appreciate your this post! It's been a great help in collecting more info on trademark properties. Thanks again and have a great day!

5:11 PM  
Blogger markclinton15159188 said...

Get any Desired College Degree, In less then 2 weeks.

Call this number now 24 hours a day 7 days a week (413) 208-3069

Get these Degrees NOW!!!

"BA", "BSc", "MA", "MSc", "MBA", "PHD",

Get everything within 2 weeks.
100% verifiable, this is a real deal

Act now you owe it to your future.

(413) 208-3069 call now 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

7:55 AM  
Blogger brakecaliperslm said...

I was looking for something else when I found your blog.Anyway I found it very useful.You may visit my new Autoparts blog if you like.

12:52 PM  
Blogger 1wrzc94gyx said...

hey, I just got a free $500.00 Gift Card. you can redeem yours at Abercrombie & Fitch All you have to do to get yours is Click Here to get a $500 free gift card for your backtoschool wardrobe

11:31 AM  
Blogger zq360 said...

hey, I just got a free $500.00 Gift Card. you can redeem yours at Abercrombie & Fitch All you have to do to get yours is Click Here to get a $500 free gift card for your backtoschool wardrobe

6:13 AM  
Blogger barb michelen said...

Hello I just entered before I have to leave to the airport, it's been very nice to meet you, if you want here is the site I told you about where I type some stuff and make good money (I work from home): here it is

1:24 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home